Volkswagen and BMW Sales Surge in 2023, but Challenges Await European Car Industry

The European car industry experienced a boost in 2023, with both Volkswagen and BMW reporting significant sales increases. However, analysts are cautioning that the road ahead may be more challenging for the industry as a whole.

On Tuesday, BMW announced that it had achieved record-breaking sales, selling approximately 2.6 million vehicles last year. This figure represents a notable 6.5% increase compared to the previous year. Similarly, Volkswagen Group, which encompasses popular brands such as Audi and Porsche in addition to its eponymous brand, reported a substantial jump in deliveries, seeing a 12% increase to about 9.2 million vehicles.

Despite these positive results, experts have expressed concerns about the future prospects of both the European and global car industry. Bernstein analysts have predicted a decline in production growth, revenue, and margins for 2024. They attribute this anticipated slump to limited supply caused by pandemic-related issues within the supply chain and the subsequent release of pent-up consumer demand.

"In the past three years, the automotive industry has enjoyed a favorable market environment, with constrained supply bolstering prices, margins, and profits," noted the Bernstein analysts in a research note. "However, in 2024, this period is expected to come to an end across all three major markets... it seems as though the bearish reality is approaching."

Despite the challenges on the horizon, both Volkswagen and BMW can celebrate their strong sales figures from 2023. However, they will need to navigate carefully in the upcoming years to surmount the obstacles that lie ahead.

Volkswagen Hits Delivery Target Despite China's Slow Growth

Volkswagen has successfully achieved its group-delivery target for the year, surpassing expectations despite minimal growth in China, the world's largest car market. Unit sales in China rose by 1.6% to approximately 3.2 million vehicles. One bright spot for the German automaker was Audi, which experienced a significant sales increase of 13.5% in China.

Striving for Success in Challenging Times

Despite anticipating a challenging environment over the next two years, Ralf Brandstaetter, the CEO of Volkswagen Group China, emphasized the company's commitment to developing technological capabilities and positioning its business for future success.

Electric Vehicle Market Challenges and Opportunities

HSBC analysts cautioned that car manufacturers may face difficulties in the electric vehicle space, the industry's largest growth sector. Lagging demand, intensified competition, and reduced government subsidies this year are expected to exert pressure on European electric-car makers. These factors may lead to decreased prices and challenges in maintaining healthy profit margins without significantly increasing sales volume.

HSBC added that while original equipment manufacturers may be scaling back their ambitions for battery-electric vehicle penetration and adopting a "value over volume" strategy, they may still encounter obstacles due to the threat posed by more competitively priced new entrants.

BMW Sets Ambitious Electric Vehicle Sales Target

Despite the challenges discussed, BMW has confirmed its ambitious target of selling over 500,000 electric vehicles by 2024. This demonstrates the company's confidence in the future of the electric vehicle market.